LocalNewsPolitics DLP retains power if general elections are held today- survey by: – May 29, 2017 Share Share Sharing is caring! Tweet Share 557 Views 3 comments D.L.P – redU.W.P – purpleUndecided – yellowA nation-wide scientific survey of Dominican electors, commissioned by Alex Bruno in April 2017, shows that the Dominica Labour Party (DLP) would retain power if general elections are held today, although the United Workers Party (UWP) has gathered support.Bruno, who is a pursuing a Ph. D in political science at the Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs Florida International University, released the results of the survey to the media on Monday 29 May 2017.In the scientific survey, Bruno sought to answer the question: ‘Which Political Party will win Dominica’s next General Parliamentary Elections’ and efforts were concentrated on 13 out of 21 constituencies.“According to this survey data I conclude, with 95% confidence, that 58% of the sample agree the Dominica Labour Party will win (+/- 3.91) the next Dominica General Elections,” Bruno wrote in the statement to the media.He wrote that this survey “stemmed from a professional desire to present independently responsible scholarly information on political candidate electability, with the view to determining which party may form the next government of the island of Dominica”. It is the second poll conducted by this agency; the first was the by-election snap poll in the Soufriere Constituency in May 2016. “We correctly predicted the results of that race. This second poll however is our first nationwide effort,” Bruno wrote.Participants were asked the following questions (in that order):1. Should general elections be held today, which political party candidate, in your opinion, will win your constituency?2. Should general elections be held today, which political party will most likely form the government?3. Do you think that issues surrounding the Citizen by Investment (C.B.I) program will have any influence or effect on the result of the next general elections?4. In your view, which political leader of the major parties is more persuasive, credible and believable?5. Which political party has the strongest message?6. Will you change your vote, meaning will you switch and vote for a different party/candidate if you had to vote today?7. For which candidate/party did you vote at the last elections?Bruno informed that on average, 60 – 75 samples were taken in each constituency, and the information collected was analyzed by the polls commissioner and statistically presented by trained professionals. Only the data collected during the polling period, April 14 – 30, 2017, was used in the presentation of the following results. “At the end, a little over 800 registered voters were polled with a margin of error of +/- 3.91%. The standard formula was used to arrive at this figure,” Bruno wrote.The results are as follows;“The results of a scientific survey suggest that the D.L.P will hold on to governing power in the parliament of Dominica should elections be held today.Respondents were of the opinion that the D.L.P will retain eleven (11) seats; the Vieille Case, Portsmouth, Cottage, Grand Bay, Paix Bouche, Colihaut, Salybia, La Plaine, Soufriere, Castle Bruce and Mahaut constituencies.The Petite Savanne constituency is a contingency seat which could also be called for the D.L.P, based on polling data – albeit inconclusive.It was also the opinion of the respondents that the United Workers Party (U.W.P) will hold on to its six (6) currently held seats: Marigot, Salisbury, Wesley, Roseau Central, Roseau North and Roseau South, while becoming more competitive in Morne Jaune which this poll declares as a toss-up seat. The U.W.P could grab the Morne Jaune seat within the margin of error if the majority of the undecided vote goes U.W.P’s way.The U.W.P also polled competitively in the St. Joseph and Roseau Valley constituency. St. Joseph was found to be the constituency with the highest level of undecided voters/respondents in each of the seven polling categories, and may very well swing either way. St. Joseph is certainly the seat which seems most vulnerable.So, if the poll results hold, the D.L.P shall win the next general election (should it be held today) with a reduced mandate of twelve (12) seats, while U.W.P can possibly take nine (9) seats”.However, Bruno noted that the UWP winning nine seats “will require a herculean task which is somewhat impeded by the incoherent messaging of the opposition party, and compounded by the public legal distraction of its leader, Mr. Lennox Linton”.The scientific electoral poll can be downloaded here: Scientfic Electoral Poll with GRAPH – DOMINICA 2017 (1)
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